Strutturare un Deal — Dal LOI al Closing

2023. Il deal Microsoft-Activision impiega 21 mesi e $3 miliardi in costi di processo. Il rischio regolatorio era stato sottovalutato.

Gennaio 2022: Microsoft annuncia l'acquisizione di Activision Blizzard (Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Candy Crush) per $68,7 miliardi — il più grande deal tech della storia. Closing previsto: giugno 2023 (18 mesi).

Cosa andò storto: Le autorità antitrust di tre giurisdizioni aprirono indagini approfondite:

• •FTC (USA): Tentò di bloccare il deal in tribunale (perse in corte federale, agosto 2023)
• •CMA (UK): Bloccò il deal nell'aprile 2023 (preoccupazione cloud gaming monopoly), poi approvò in ottobre dopo ristrutturazione (Microsoft cede UK cloud rights a Ubisoft)
• •European Commission (EU): Approvò maggio 2023 con remedies (licensing deals con competitor)

Closing effettivo: Ottobre 2023 — 21 mesi dopo annuncio (vs 18 previsti).

Lesson: In deal large-cap o con overlap competitivo, il rischio regolatorio non è edge case — è main risk. Microsoft sottovalutò resistance UK (cloud gaming concerns nuovi). Un analista PE deve model regulatory risk in valuation: probability approval x timing delay x cost process.

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Complete Deal Process Timeline — From First Call to Post-Closing

Week 0-4: Origination & Screening

First contact → NDA:

Day 1: First call (30min) — fondo e founder alignment high-level
Day 3: NDA signed (1-way: solo fondo riceve confidential info, o 2-way se discussione partnership)
Day 5: CIM (Confidential Information Memorandum) ricevuto — documento vendita 40-80 pagine con:
  - Business overview, products, customers
  - Financial historicals (3-5 anni) + forecast
  - Management bios
  - Market opportunity
  - Investment highlights ("perché comprare")

Screening memo (analyst deliverable):

Week 4-8: LOI (Letter of Intent) Negotiation

Se Partner approva screening → LOI submission.

LOI Structure:

Sections: 1. Transaction Structure - Asset deal vs Share deal (in Italia: quasi sempre share deal — azioni/quote) - Purchase price: €X o range €X-Y (subject to DD adjustment) - Payment form: Cash, rollover equity, earn-out split

2. Valuation Methodology - "Enterprise value €20M based on €2,5M EBITDA (LTM) at 8x multiple" - Debt-free, cash-free basis (enterprise value, non equity value)

3. Exclusivity - Duration: 8 settimane (extendable 4 settimane if DD in progress) - Seller cannot solicit/negotiate with other buyers - Break fee: se seller breach exclusivity, paga fondo €X (tipicamente 1-3% EV)

4. Conditions Precedent - Satisfactory completion DD (FDD, LDD, CDD) - Financing approval (se fondo usa debt financing) - Regulatory approvals (antitrust se applicabile) - Rinnovo key contracts (se customer concentration issue)

5. Confidentiality - Parties non disclose terms o existence negotiation

6. Governing Law & Jurisdiction - "Italian law governs. Disputes arbitrated Milan (Camera Arbitrale)"

7. Binding vs Non-Binding - Sections 3,5,6,7 (exclusivity, confidentiality, fees, jurisdiction): BINDING - Sections 1,2,4 (price, structure, conditions): NON-BINDING (subject to DD + SPA negotiation) ```

Exclusivity negotiation:

• •Fondo wants: 12 settimane exclusivity (massimo tempo DD senza pressure)
• •Seller wants: 4 settimane (minimo lock-up, mantiene leverage)
• •Compromise: 8 settimane + 4 settimane extension se DD in good faith progress

Break fee negotiation:

Scenario A (no break fee): Seller può walk away free durante exclusivity se trova better offer.

Fondo preferisce B (protezione investimento DD). Seller resiste (limita flessibilità). Market standard Italia: break fee 1-2% enterprise value per deal >€10M, zero per deal <€10M. ```

Week 8-16: Due Diligence (coperto M6-L1)

Week 14-20: SPA (Share Purchase Agreement) Negotiation & Drafting

SPA = contratto definitivo che regola: - Chi vende cosa a chi, a che prezzo, quando, con quali garanzie

SPA structure standard:

1. Definitions (10-15 pagine)

2. Sale & Purchase (2-3 pagine) - "Seller sells 100% shares Company to Buyer for Purchase Price" - Payment mechanics (wire details, escrow setup)

3. Purchase Price & Adjustments (5-10 pagine) - Base price: €20M - NWC adjustment (vedi sotto) - Debt adjustment (se debt al closing > assumed, price ↓) - Cash adjustment (se cash al closing > assumed, price ↑)

4. Conditions Precedent (3-5 pagine) - Antitrust clearance (se applicabile) - Financing approval Buyer - Key contracts consents (change of control waivers) - No Material Adverse Change (MAC clause)

5. Representations & Warranties (30-50 pagine) - Seller reps (vedi sotto)

6. Covenants (10-15 pagine) - Pre-closing covenants (cosa Seller può/non può fare prima closing) - Post-closing covenants (non-compete, transition services)

7. Indemnification (10-15 pagine) - Indemnity mechanics: cap, basket, survival (vedi sotto)

8. Closing & Post-Closing (5-10 pagine) - Closing deliverables (share certificates, board resignations, etc.) - Post-closing adjustments (NWC true-up)

9. Termination (3-5 pagine) - Events allowing termination pre-closing

10. Miscellaneous (5-10 pagine) - Governing law, jurisdiction, notices, amendments

Total: 100-200 pagine (deal €10M-50M) ```

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SPA Key Clauses — Deep Dive

Representations & Warranties (Reps)

Cosa sono: Dichiarazioni Seller su fatti relativi a Company. Se false → breach → indemnity.

Standard reps categories (12+):

1. Organization & Authority - Company è validamente costituita, in good standing - Seller ha authority vendere shares - No conflitti con statuto, patti parasociali

2. Capitalization - Cap table completo e accurato - No hidden shareholders, options, warrants outstanding - Shares free from liens/encumbrances

3. Financial Statements - Financials attached "fairly present" financial position - Prepared in accordance with Italian GAAP (OIC) or IFRS - No material misstatements or omissions

4. No Material Adverse Change (MAC) - Since last financials, no MAC occurred - MAC = evento che riduce EBITDA >15% sustained, o loss key asset

5. Compliance with Laws - Company complies con labor law, tax law, GDPR, environmental law - No violations pending or threatened - All licenses/permits in place and valid

6. Material Contracts - Schedule lists all material contracts (>€50K/anno) - Contracts valid, enforceable, no default - No change of control termination rights (o listed in schedule)

7. Intellectual Property - Company owns or licensed all IP used in business - No infringement third-party IP - No IP disputes pending

8. Real Estate - Leases valid, no default, landlord consents obtained - Owned property free from liens (except disclosed)

9. Litigation - No litigation pending >€X - No regulatory investigations - No threatened claims >€Y

10. Employees - Schedule lists all employees (anonymized) - No labor disputes, strikes, union issues - Compensation/benefits accurately disclosed - No INPS/INAIL arrears

11. Tax - Tax returns filed for last 5 years - No tax audits >€X pending - No tax liens

12. Environmental - No contamination, hazardous materials - Compliance D.Lgs 152/2006 - No remediation obligations

Disclosure schedules:

Seller può "disclose exceptions" a reps via disclosure schedules attached SPA.

Esempio: Rep: "No litigation >€50K pending." Disclosure Schedule 7.1: "Exception: Litigation vs Fornitore XYZ, claim €120K, trial Feb 2025."

Result: Rep è tecnicamente false (c'è litigation >€50K), ma Buyer è informato → no breach → no indemnity claim post-closing.

Indemnification Mechanics

Formula indemnity recovery:

Survival: duration reps remain enforceable post-closing

Standard terms Italia (deal €10M-20M):

Basket: €200K (1% purchase price — "deductible") - Tipping basket: se losses > €200K, Seller paga da €0 (basket "tips") - Deductible basket: se losses > €200K, Seller paga solo excess (Buyer absorbs first €200K) - Market standard: deductible basket (più favorevole Seller)

Cap: €4M (20% purchase price — max exposure Seller) - General reps cap: 20% PP - Fundamental reps cap: 100% PP (no cap per title, authority, capitalization, tax)

Survival: - General reps: 18 mesi post-closing - Fundamental reps: 5 anni (o statute of limitations più lungo) - Tax reps: 6 anni (statute limitations tax Italia) - Environmental: 10 anni (contamination can surface late)

Example indemnity claim:

Post-closing Month 14: Emerge debito nascosto INPS €350K (contribution arrears pre-closing). Buyer claim: Breach rep "Compliance with Laws — no INPS arrears."

Calculation: Loss: €350K (INPS debt + penalties) Basket: €200K (deductible) Indemnity: €350K - €200K = €150K Seller paga Buyer

Se Cap era €4M e già €3,9M used per altri claims precedenti: Remaining cap: €4M - €3,9M = €100K Indemnity: min(€150K, €100K) = €100K Seller paga Buyer absorbs remaining €50K (cap exhausted)

NWC (Net Working Capital) Mechanism — Dettaglio Completo

Obiettivo: Prevent working capital manipulation pre-closing (visto M6-L2).

Meccanica 3-step:

Step 1: NWC Target (Peg) — Agreed in SPA

Esempio: AR ultimo 12M average: €1.200K Inventory: €300K AP: €800K NWC Target = €1.200K + €300K - €800K = €700K

SPA clause: "NWC Target: €700K"

Step 2: NWC Actual — Calculated at Closing

Closing Date: 31 March 2025 NWC Actual calculated based on closing balance sheet: AR (31 Mar): €900K (lower — Seller collected early) Inventory (31 Mar): €250K (lower — Seller depleted) AP (31 Mar): €1.100K (higher — Seller delayed payments) NWC Actual = €900K + €250K - €1.100K = €50K

Step 3: NWC True-Up — Post-Closing Adjustment

SPA mechanism: "If NWC Actual < NWC Target, Seller pays Buyer the difference (euro-for-euro). If NWC Actual > NWC Target, Buyer pays Seller the difference."

Result: Seller paga Buyer €650K entro 10 giorni da finalized closing statement.

Total consideration adjusted: Original PP: €20M NWC adjustment: -€650K Final PP: €19,35M

Timeline NWC true-up:

Day 0 (Closing): Estimated NWC used (typically = Target, per semplicità) Day 60 post-closing: Buyer prepara closing balance sheet → NWC Actual calculated Day 75: Seller ha 15 giorni review/dispute Day 90: Se dispute, independent accountant resolve (costo split 50/50) Day 100: Final NWC Actual agreed → payment adjustment

Cap su NWC adjustment:

Alcuni SPA cap NWC adjustment (raro ma esiste):

"NWC adjustment capped at +/- 15% of NWC Target."

Se NWC Actual = €50K (shortfall €650K): Capped adjustment: €105K (non €650K) Buyer perde remaining €545K (assorbito)

Questo è PRO-SELLER. Buyer dovrebbe resist cap o negotiate cap alto (30-50%).

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Earn-Out Structures

Cosa: Parte del prezzo pagata post-closing, condizionata a performance targets.

Standard structures:

1. Revenue-Based Earn-Out

Base price: €15M (al closing)

Calculation: If Revenue FY2025 = €13M → Seller riceve €3M (target hit) If Revenue FY2025 = €11M → Seller riceve €0 (target missed)

Cap: €3M (max earn-out) Floor: €0 (min earn-out, se miss target) ```

2. EBITDA-Based Earn-Out (più comune)

Base price: €18M

Scenarios: EBITDA FY2025 = €3,5M → Earn-out = 50% x (€3,5M - €2,5M) = 50% x €1M = €500K EBITDA FY2025 = €4,5M → Earn-out = 50% x (€4,5M - €2,5M) = 50% x €2M = €1M (ma cap €2M) EBITDA FY2025 = €6,5M → Earn-out = 50% x (€6,5M - €2,5M) = 50% x €4M = €2M (capped) EBITDA FY2025 = €2,0M → Earn-out = 50% x (€2M - €2,5M) = 50% x (-€500K) = €0 (floor) ```

3. Customer Retention Earn-Out

Base price: €10M

Binary: renews → €2M. Non renews → €0. ```

Earn-out disputes — Common issues:

• •EBITDA definition manipulation: Buyer alloca più costi a Company post-closing (management fees, IT costs) → EBITDA ↓ → earn-out ↓
• •Prevention: EBITDA for earn-out calculated "consistent with historical methodology" + independent accountant verification
• •Mitigazione Seller: Retained control su operations durante earn-out period (raro) O "operating covenants" (Buyer non può cambiare drastically business)

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Escrow & Holdback Sizing

Escrow: Parte prezzo held by terzo (notaio or bank) per period post-closing.

Holdback: Parte prezzo trattenuta da Buyer (non paid al closing) — simile escrow ma Buyer controls.

Standard escrow sizing:

Deal €20M: Option A: 10% PP = €2M (baseline) Option B: Contingent liabilities identified DD: - Litigation: €1M EV - Tax audit: €300K EV - IP dispute: €500K EV Total: €1,8M x 1,5 safety margin = €2,7M

Escrow release schedule:

Total escrow: €2,7M

Release: - Month 18: €1M released (se no claims filed OR claims <€1M) - Month 24: Remaining balance released OR used satisfy outstanding claims

Se claims filed Month 12 per €800K: Month 18: €1M held (not released, pending claim resolution) Month 20: Claim resolved, Seller liable €600K → €600K da escrow a Buyer Month 24: Remaining €2,7M - €600K = €2,1M released a Seller ```

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Management Rollover Equity & Vesting

Rollover equity: Management (CEO, founders) reinveste parte proceeds in NewCo post-deal.

Standard terms:

Deal structure:
  - Fondo acquista 70% Company per €14M (€20M EV x 70%)

Management equity post-deal: - 30% ownership NewCo - Vesting: 4 anni, cliff 1 anno (standard) - Liquidity: exit fondo (5-7 anni) via M&A or IPO

Upside scenario: Entry valuation: €20M (management 30% = €6M) Exit valuation (year 5): €60M (3x, assume success) Management equity value: €60M x 30% = €18M Gain: €18M - €6M = €12M (2x return on rollover) ```

Vesting management equity post-deal:

Rationale: Se CEO leaves year 2, forfeit unvested equity (protegge fondo da key person departure).

Acceleration: Double-trigger (Change of Control + Termination without Cause). ```

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Italian Notarial Closing Process

Closing day logistics:

Location: Studio notaio (Milano, Roma, etc.)
Participants:
  - Buyer (fondo GP, legal counsel)
  - Seller (founders, legal counsel)
  - Notaio (independent, licensed public officer)

Duration: 2-4 ore

Post-closing immediate: - Board meeting: Seller directors resign, Buyer directors appointed - Bank signature authorities updated - Customer/supplier notifications (if required by contracts) ```

Costi notarili:

Deal €10M-20M: €5.000-€15.000 notary fees + €3.000-€8.000 registration taxes (imposta registro 0,5% valore nominale azioni or progressive tiers).

Differenza vs common law (USA/UK):

USA/UK: no notary needed, parties self-execute via signed SPA + wire transfer. Italia: notary mandatory per share transfer validity — atto notarile = prova legale incontrovertibile.

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Antitrust Clearance — AGCM & EU Thresholds

AGCM (Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato) — Italy

Mandatory filing thresholds (Art. 16 L. 287/90):

Filing required se:
  Condition 1: Combined aggregate turnover Italy >€492M
  AND

Esempio: Buyer (fondo portfolio aggregate): €600M turnover Italia Target: €50M turnover Italia → €600M > €492M ✓ AND €50M > €30M ✓ → Filing OBBLIGATORIO

Timing: - Pre-filing consultation: facoltativo, 2-4 settimane - Filing submission: entro 30 giorni da signing SPA (or LOI binding) - Phase 1 review: 30 giorni (può estendere 45 giorni) - Phase 2 (se concerns): +90 giorni addizionali

Clearance: - Unconditional: AGCM approva senza condizioni (80% casi) - Conditional: AGCM approva con remedies (divestiture, behavioral commitments) - Prohibition: AGCM blocca (raro, <5%)

Fee: Progressive (€0 se turnover <€10M, fino a €106K se turnover >€5Mrd) ```

EU Merger Regulation (EUMR) — European Commission

EU filing thresholds (Art. 1 EUMR):

Filing EU Commission required se:
  Condition 1: Combined worldwide turnover >€5Mrd
  AND
  Condition 2: Each of at least 2 parties EU turnover >€250M
  UNLESS

Esempio Microsoft-Activision: Microsoft worldwide: $200Mrd+ Activision worldwide: $8Mrd+ Both EU turnover >€250M ✓ → EU Commission jurisdiction (not national)

Timeline: - Phase 1: 25 working days (può estendere 35 giorni if parties submit remedies) - Phase 2 (se serious concerns): +90 working days (+15 estensione se parties request) - Total max: ~5-6 mesi

Decision: - Clearance unconditional - Clearance conditional (remedies: divestiture assets, licensing commitments) - Prohibition (Microsoft-Activision: CMA UK initially prohibited, poi approvò con remedies) ```

Remedies typical:

• •Structural: Divestiture asset (es. "sell Brand X to competitor")
• •Behavioral: Licensing commitments (es. "license IP to competitors for 10 years at FRAND terms")

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Golden Power Screening — Italy (DL 21/2012)

Golden Power = Italian FDI screening regime per acquisizioni foreign investors in settori strategici.

Settori coperti:

1. 01Defense & National Security (sempre covered)
2. 02Energy, Transport, Communications (infrastrutture critiche)
3. 03High-Tech (5G, AI, robotics, semiconductors, cybersecurity) — added 2019-2020
4. 04Finance, Health, Food (added COVID-era)

Thresholds notification:

Notification required se:
  - Buyer è non-EU entity (USA, UK post-Brexit, China, etc.)
  - Target opera in settori strategici
  - Deal involve:
    * Acquisizione >10% voting rights (or >15%/20%/25% tiers)
    * Acquisizione control (diretto o indiretto)

Esempio: Fondo USA acquista 30% di Italian cybersecurity company → Golden Power notification OBBLIGATORIA. Fondo italiano acquista 100% Italian cybersecurity company → Golden Power NON required (domestic deal). ```

Process:

Step 1: Pre-notification (facoltativo) a Presidenza Consiglio dei Ministri
Step 2: Formal notification entro 10 giorni da signing SPA (or earlier triggering event)
Step 3: Phase 1 review (45 giorni)
  - Clearance tacita (se no risposta in 45 giorni)
  - Clearance esplicita
  - Avvio Phase 2 (se concerns)
Step 4: Phase 2 (se triggered): +30 giorni
  - Conditions imposed (es. "Buyer commit not transfer certain IP abroad")

Sanzioni non-compliance: - Multa fino a 2x valore deal - Nullità atto acquisizione ```

Recent enforcement:

2020-2023: Italia ha usato Golden Power aggressivamente (>100 cases, especially cinese buyers).

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Post-Closing 100-Day Plan

Standard 100-day plan structure:

Day 1-30: Stabilization

Actions: - Announce deal a employees (all-hands meeting, CEO + fondo Partner) - Announce deal a key customers (calls/emails, rassicurazione continuity) - Announce deal a suppliers (no payment terms changes) - New board meeting (fondo nominates directors, approvano governance) - Integrate reporting systems (fondo riceve weekly KPI dashboards) ```

Day 30-60: Deep Dive & Baseline

Actions: - Operational deep dives: sales process, product roadmap, customer success, finance ops - KPI baseline: stabilize reporting (consistent definitions ARR, churn, CAC, LTV) - Identify quick wins (low-hanging fruit — es. pricing optimization, sales process fix) - 100-day plan v2 (refine initial plan based on learnings) ```

Day 60-100: Execute Initiatives

Actions: - Pricing changes (if identified opportunity) - Sales hiring (if capacity constraint) - Product roadmap prioritization (kill low-value features, focus high-impact) - Cost optimization (renegotiate supplier contracts, optimize SaaS stack) - Prepare annual budget (FY next year) ```

100-day plan deliverables (fondo LP reporting):

Report structure:
  1. Executive summary (1 pag): deal closed, no issues, on-track
  2. Operational highlights (2 pag): KPIs (revenue, EBITDA, churn, NPS)
  3. Value creation progress (2 pag): initiatives launched, impact quantified
  4. Risks & mitigations (1 pag): risks identified, mitigation actions

Total: 6-8 pagine max (LPs non leggono >10 pag). ```

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Best Practices Deal Execution

1. Model regulatory risk explicitly

Microsoft-Activision lesson: probability approval x timing delay x cost. Include in valuation model.

2. NWC mechanism is non-negotiable

Without NWC adjustment, Seller WILL manipulate WC pre-closing. Insist on true-up.

3. Escrow > Reps alone

Reps without escrow = litigation risk post-closing per recover indemnity. Escrow = cash already held.

4. Earn-outsAlign Interests... ma complicate

Earn-out risolve valuation gap ma crea operational tension (Seller vuole maximize short-term EBITDA, Buyer vuole invest for growth). Use sparingly.

5. 100-day plan Pre-Closing

Draft 100-day plan DURING DD (not after closing). Closing day = implementation starts, non planning starts.